RACING POST RATINGS FOR 2 -Y- Os
Friday July 1
There have been a number of RPRs of 100 or more since the last table. Below is the updated table:
Below is the list of juveniles who have produced a three-figure rating from the Racing Post team.
Bradsell (TASLEET) 112
Dramatised (SHOWCASING) 111
Persian Force (MEHMAS) 107
Blackbeard (NO NAY NEVER) 107
Royal Scotsman (GLENEAGLES) 106
Little Big Bear (NO NAY NEVER) 106
Little Big Bear (NO NAY NEVER) 106
Shartash (INVICIBLE SPIRIT) 106
Mylandsea (HAVANA GREY) 105
The Ridler (BRAZEN BEAU) 105
Meditate (NO NAY NEVER) 105
Blackbeard (NO NAY NEVER) 104
Rocket Rodney (DANDY MAN) 104
Crispy Cat (ARDAD) 104
Statuette (JUSTIFY) 104
Noble Style (KINGMAN) 103
Walbank (KODIAC) 102
Age Of Kings (KINGMAN) 102
Persian Force (MEHMAS) 101
Holloway Boy (ULYSSES) 101
Lezoo (ZOUSTAR) 101
Apache Outlaw (CHURCHILL) 100
Bradsell (TASLEET) 100
Blackbeard (NO NAY NEVER) 100
Maria Bramwell (JAMES GARFIELD) 100
Love Reigns (U S NAVY FLAG) 100
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Saturday June 25
I am pleased to report that I have had a reply to my email to the Racing Post.
My contact was a very helpful and patient gentleman, thank you Mr. Bryan Orr and he liaised with Matt Gardner the Racing Posts 2-y-o handicapper.
Below are some quotes from the piece I had from Matt:
Pre-amble
"It’s probably worth saying at the outset that handicapping two-year-olds is tricky - unlike when handicapping older horses, we don’t have the luxury of a bank of form to go on, and often we don’t have any form at all. Acknowledging that, we just have to make the best use of the information that we do have.
Historical Race Data
"..... Generally speaking, the same races tend to attract horses of a similar calibre year-on-year. This is very much a starting point, and some races can vary from one year to the next more than others, but it is a good “in” to a race, and is often significant when it comes to spotting patterns with trainers targeting specific races. It also helps us to put Group races into a historical context - what has the winner of this year’s Coventry, for example, achieved versus previous winners?"
Strength of race
"............ we can also try and glean how deep a race might be by looking at the calibre of yards and pedigrees present. This isn’t terribly scientific, but it may lead you to take a more or less positive initial view of a field."
Time
".......... the obvious starting point when trying to put a figure on a race is time. Using Racing Post’s Topspeed data, and comparing the time of a race with others on the same card, we can start to try and put a performance into context........."
Examples
"After that, it’s really just a case of trying to use your experience and judgement to draw a conclusion. I’ve included a few examples, of both positive and negative initial views, from this year below.
Tough Talk - Curragh 10/4/22
An early-season race in which only two had run previously, and the standard setter (Forceful Speed) disappointed. Regardless, it instantly looked a race to take a positive view of, given the yards and pedigrees involved and that the time compared favourably with other C&D races on the card. This was a race where even a positive initial view has since been revised up, from a starting point of around 95 up to the 100 that it is now, thanks to several winners emerging since.
Queen Olly - York 12/5/22
On the face of it this looks good form, but my initial view (RPR 88) was perhaps less positive than might have been expected. This race featured good yards and pedigrees, but the time was very ordinary despite the pace being good and the field finishing well strung out. The winner is potentially a good filly, and her performance rates in line with the upper end of the historical race standards, but so far the slightly more conservative taken has been justified, with the second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth all running below form since............."
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Monday June 20
An update on the Racing Post Ratings after an eventful group of races at the Royal Ascot meeting.
First I must come clean on my scepticism of the RP's ratings for the early 2-y-o races. The two horses that I had thought they had over-rated Little Big Bear and Brave Nation, the former by landing lots of large investments and the latter with a very unlucky run, would have been placed at least justified that publications position and put me in my place. Respect!
Below is the list of juveniles who have produced a three-figure rating from the Racing Post team.
Bradsell (TASLEET) 112
Dramatised (SHOWCASING) 111
Persian Force (MEHMAS) 107
Blackbeard (NO NAY NEVER) 107
Royal Scotsman (GLENEAGLES) 106
Little Big Bear (NO NAY NEVER) 106
Little Big Bear (NO NAY NEVER) 106
Mylandsea (HAVANA GREY) 105
The Ridler (BRAZEN BEAU) 105
Meditate (NO NAY NEVER) 105
Rocket Rodney (DANDY MAN) 104
Crispy Cat (ARDAD) 104
Noble Style (KINGMAN) 103
Walbank (KODIAC) 102
Age Of Kings (KINGMAN) 102
Persian Force (MEHMAS) 101
Holloway Boy (ULYSSES) !01
Bradsell (TASLEET) 100
Blackbeard (NO NAY NEVER) 100
Maria Bramwell (JAMES GARFIELD) 100
Love Reigns (U S NAVY FLAG) 100
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I have often wondered what factors the team at the Post to arrive at a number for horse's first time run. Earlier this week I emailed them and asked them that question, except for the standard reply that they had received the email, I have heard nothing. I thought they might mention a pointer or two, i'm either too impatient or too hopeful. My feelings are that at best the ratings produced can be described as speculative and at worst, guesswork. Probably a bit harsh.......?
I'd be interested to know if anyone reading this has attempted to compile 2-y-o ratings from scratch. I've looked at doing it but I found I was just guessing.
Anyway I've been having a look at their ratings and with Royal Ascot looming I thought I'd list the youngsters that have been given a rating of 100 or more. There are six of them:
Blackbeard (NO NAY NEVER) 107
Little Big Bear (NO NAY NEVER). 106
Noble Style (KINGMAN) 103
Walbank (KODIAC) 102
Persian Force (MEHMAS) 101
Bradsell (TASLEET) 100
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