Old Boys On The Block

Friday  July 1

Leading 2-y-o sires (excluding FirstSeason Sires)

KODIAC                        runners  60    winners  15     runs  111      wins  15

NO NAY NEVER                          28 - 8 - 49 - 13

COTAI GLORY                           31 -11 - 73 - 12 

BRAZEN BEAU                          18 - 7 - 49 - 11

SHOWCASING                          34 - 8 - 65 - 11 

Wednesday   June 1

Table of the older stallions (i.e. excluding first season sires)

NO NAY NEVER                  runners  15    winners  7    runs  22      wins. 10

BRAZEN BEAU                                 13  -  6  -  28  -  9

BUNGLE INTHEJUNGLE               23  -  6  -  50  -  8

COTAI GLORY                                  25  -  8  -  44  -  8

DANDY MAN                                      31  -  8  -  54  -  8       

Sunday        May 1          9.30 a.m.

Here is the table for the overall 2-y-o sire:

BUNGLE INTHEJUNGLE   Runners  15   Winners  4   Runs  23   Wins 5  

CAMACHO        19  -  4  -  24  -  5

DANDY MAN     15  -  4  -  23  -  4

HAVANA GREY  16  -  3  -  21  - 4

NO NAY NEVER  6  -  4  -  6  -  4

As you can see my "OLD BOYS", if you'll excuse the expression, haven't covered themselves in glory yet, with only NO NAY NEVER showing above. SHOWCASING and DARK ANGEL have two each but it is very early days.    

        

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 Well we've had a look at the Newbies let's have a look at some of the older hands, the ones that have been round the block once or twice before.

I have had a look at the leading sires of 2-y-os of 2021 and made some notes about the stats they have produced during 2020 and 2021. I debated with myself about the years to take into account, go back further and have many more data points or settle for small samples (in some cases) to get a more up to date picture. Things change, stallions move studs and in one case in particular with a big change in fortunes.

I've arrived at a rather random 26 of them and for the sheer hell of it of going through them alphabetically, that's is if my alphabet skills and spelling are up to it.

At this point I would like to mention Adrian Massey's Horse Racing Site where the huge majority of my figures come from. It's completely FREE, don't know how he does it. Needless to say if the figures are wrong it will be done to me and no one else. Off we jolly well go.

ACCLAMATION

Had his first juveniles on the course in 2016 and it wasn't until 2021 that he appeared in the table.Plenty of runners and plenty of winners but no profit from following blindly. Over the two seasons, on rather flimsy evidence, in races over a mile plus his progeny won 18.2% of their races and showed a return of £136.70 on £100. His runners should be avoided on debut and their best figures are returned on Good to Soft ground.  

ACLAIM

A Newbie last year, Aclaim's offspring ran in 70 races and won 28 of them. They did better on artificial surfaces than turf. First time out on that sort of surface, especially good 30.0% winners and a nice return of £275 to a £100 (rather a small sample size).

ARDAD

Probably the surprise package of 2021's first crop sires, if he had been busier as a stallion he could well have been a contender for Champion. As it was he didn't have enough runners to go with his very good strike rate. All his stats are skewed by a 150/1 winner but I think it's safe to say his youngsters are all about speed - 5f., fast ground and though that long-priced winner was first time out his strike rate of 16.4 with his runners on debut suggests they will be ready to run when they get there. 

BATED BREATH

His 2-y-os made their bow in 2016. They did very well in 2019 and reasonably well last season. The results suggest his horses don't do well on debut just 4.4% winning in the last two years. On an artificial surface, again avoiding them first time out, they achieved 21.3% wins for a return of £143 for the £100 staked. 

CARAVAGGIO

Had his first runners last year and to my mind didn't live up to the high expectations of him. He did tot up 31 wins but that was from 73 runners who ran in 265 races. With his background he was never going to be overpriced in the markets. The only angle I can come up with is his offspring's inability to win on an artificial surface. 28 runners and no wins.

CHURCHILL

Another First Season Sire who slightly surprisingly did rather better than Caravaggio with his 2-y-os. Similar connections but to my eye Caravaggio is the more speedily bred. We saw 82 Churchill runners, taking part in 247 and winning 32. Never much value in the market and needed avoiding on debut with only the one winner. His progeny seemed to appreciate just a little cut in the ground, Good to Soft going gave hime 19.0% winners and a return of £181.50 to £100. 

COTAI GLORY

Last year's Champion First Season Sire with 88 runners running 359 races and winning 55 of them. I had difficulty in trying to find a way of making a profit for his runners and the only thing I could come up with was that backing his runners blindly in Class 4 (D) races gave you 21.9% winners and a a return of £151. Something to look at perhaps?

DARK ANGEL

This seventeen year old has been churning out winners for some time now. Regularly in the top ten 2-y-o sires and up in fourth place last year with 90 juveniles representing him on 334 occasions and winning 51 races. The only possible angle I could find to making a profit was backing 'em all in Class 6 races 16% winners return of £126, I'm not convinced.

DUBAWI

His first juveniles were first introduced to the racecourse in 2009 and since then he has proved to be one of the best 2-y-o sires available. Doesn't compete on a numbers basis but his youngsters tend to be VERY classy. Last year 61 of his offspring made it to the track, they ran 155 times and won 40 races. Difficult to make a profit, %age winners good but not a great deal of value to be had. Couple of things I noticed in the last two years he has had 11 runners on heavy ground none of them one, his colts and geldings do better than his fillies. 

FRANKEL

One of the very best racehorses himself, he ain't to shabby as a sire either. His first runners appeared in 2016. Some way off the top by runners and winners but has won plenty of prize money, last year was one of his best in that respect. Frankel had 62 running for him, running in 157 races and winning 39 of them. Six furlongs seems the trip for them 28.1% winners, return £178.80, Class 2 (B) 26.3% winners, returns £203.80, they seem to excel on Good to Firm 32.5% winners, returns£175.30. His fillies do well providing they are racing against other fillies, 26.1% winners and returns of £127.90.   

GALILEO

The King is dead! Long Live the King.

Who will replace him? There are plenty of young pretenders but Galileo has been just a bit special. The Greatest Of all Time is a title that is almost impossible to award, but if ever there was a very good candidate  it has to be this old man.

Euthanised in 2021 after sustaining an injury he has been an exceptional producer of innumerable good and very good horses. His first progeny appeared on a racecourse in 2005, I'm afraid I have no figures for his early years as a sire. In the years 2018, 2019 and 2020 he finished in the top 20 sires of 2-y-os on number of wins. His babies were less successful last year. Difficult to find a way of making a profit backing Galileo's 2-y-o's  but Aiden O'Brien  trained runners generally don't have 'the gun to the head' approach first time out. In the the last two years of 46 runners only 5 won, is there scope for people who have no problem laying horses to make a profit from that?

Based on last year's results and the fact that he is no longer about probably means his influence will diminish. His last crop won't appear until 2024 and who knows what star might be discovered in that time.

GLENEAGLES

Possibly one of the pretenders mentioned above but at this stage unlikely to make it. His first crop appeared in 2019,  when his 58 runners ran in 163 races and won 31 of them. Not a great number of winners but a nice strike rate of 41%. His percentage of winners to runners increased to 46% last year. On those sort of figures you would think an edge could be found; well on a limited sample size 40% of his won when racing over 10 furlongs plus, they seem to appreciate some cut in the ground (soft and good to soft return profits), besides doing well over extended trips they won 20% of their races over 6f. returning a small profit and surprisingly the best return of £222.50 was achieved in Class 6 events.

HAVANA GOLD

First crop appeared on course in 2017, he had great success with his second crop, had two rather quiet years but came back well last year to finish fifth in the number of 2-y-o winners table with 74 babies running for him in 285 races and winning 45 of them. He and his offspring are all about speed, Havana Grey, one of his sons, is second favourite to be the Champion First Season Sire of 2022. As I say, all about speed 19.7% of his runners over 5f. won returning £116.90 for the £100 staked.

IFFRAAJ

This old boy is knocking on a bit now, his first 2-y-os made their bow in 2010. in three of the last four years Iffraaj has finished in the top 20-30 of the 2-y-o winners table. Last year he was 20th. with 70 representatives running 208 times and producing 29 winners. In the last two years, on Good to Firm ground his win percentage was 18.0 and they achieved a return of £130.10; in that period he only had two runners on firm ground, both won for a return of £407.70.

KINGMAN

A very good racehorse and a very classy stallion but not as successful as some with his 2-y-os. His first runners saw a racecourse in 2018 . 56 of them ran in 133 races, winning 28 races (38%). Five black-type winners in there and prize money of c £500,000. Last years returns rather disappointing with just 19 winners from 113 runs and no black type winners. His runners on debut won 19% of their races for a marginal profit, perhaps surprisingly they did well over five furlongs, 28.6% winning and a return of £128.60, Class D races were best on grade 27.9% and £124.10. Perhaps the best angle is the ground, Kingman is unusual in that he seems to enjoy Heavy ground, small sample size but 33.3% winners and a return of £150 and on Good to Soft 25.0% and £146.20.    

KODIAC

Well what can you say about this old boy? To quote the puff on his stallion page "the perennial European Champion Sire", "World Record Holder for 2-y-o Winners" and  "a successful Sire of Sires". His first crop reached a racecourse in 2010 and look at last season's "Leading Sires of 2-y-o's in Europe" table and who is there lording it over his subjects, yep - KODIAC.  He had to settle for second place in 2019 and 2020 but you can't keep a good stallion down. Because of his reputation it is difficult to make a profit from his runners but in the last two years backing all his runners in 5f. races gave you 15.5% winners and a very marginal return of £102 and being on all his runners on Good ground (in the same period) gave you a win percentage of 15.9  and a reasonable return of £177.70.

KODI BEAR

A son of Kodiac, would you believe. First runners in 2020 when he had 53 horses running in 214 races and winning 28 (34%). Last year he had one less winner but an improved strike rate of 37%. looking at the figures there seems to be a bit of a fluke, in the last two years backing all Kodi Bear's runners in Class 2 (B) resulted in a strike rate of 37.5% and a return of £218.80 and another oddity backing his runners only when racing against colts and geldings returned better results than when fillies are taking part as well, 21.4% against 16.5% and £161.30 against £106.40. I'll leave you to make what you will of that.

MEHMAS

Could Mehmas be the new Kodiac. I suppose that depends on whether Kodiac keeps churning out the winners. Certainly Mehmas has done exceedingly well with his two crops of babies. Seeing the racecourse for the first time in 2020 they did well enough to ensure that their sire was the Champion Sire of 2-y-os for that season. He had 103 youngsters running for him, they ran in 455 races and won 79 of them. his second crop were none too shabby either. He had to bow to the king, Kodiac, who took back his crown but Mehmas managed second place in the table; 88 running in 376 and realising 58 wins. Six furlong races produced the best figures for distance 18.3% and return of £107.80, they seem to appreciate fast ground, on Good to Firm going 22.3% winners for a return of £110.90, artificial surfaces aren't a problem 18.3% and £119.70. Looking forward to Mehmas' third crop and will old Kodiac be there at the end? 

NEW BAY

Not the busiest of stallions and not that many 2-y-o winners but 2021 provided evidence that he may be a "slow-burner". In his first year, 2020, he had just 43 runners representing him on track and there were just 12 with a win to their name. His second crop consisted of 35 who made it onto a racecourse, they ran in 106 races and won 19 of them, fewer runners but a better strike rate. It's when you look at the horses returns that you realise this son of Dubawi is one to keep an eye on. Backing all his runners blindly would have given you a tiny profit returning £100.60 at a strike rate of 18.1%, backing them on debut £142.10 at 17.9%., seven furlongs seemed to be the optimum trip £170.10 at 27.8%. He had classy winners Class 1 28.6% winning for a return of £157.10, winners in Class 4 28.6% for £190.40. As far as going preferences Good to Soft 35.0% for £185.80 and Good 25.9% for £171.20. He tends to get better results with the boys than the girls but fillies racing against other fillies did OK 18.9% and £110.40.

NIGHT OF THUNDER

First crop appeared in 2019 and did very well indeed, finishing third top sire of 2-y-os for that season. 48 horses running in 164 races and winning 45 of them. The following season was nowhere near as successful, I can't find his numbers but he wasn't in the top 30. Last year he finished 34th. in the table with 43 horses running 112 times and between them winning 21 races. Night Of Thunders offspring in the last two seasons won 19.1% of their 6f. races returning £125. 10.  In Class 3(C) races a strike rate of 40% and a massive return of £415, you have to feel that this is a statistical blip.  

NO NAY NEVER

 Did well with his first crop in 2018 finishing fourth in the table. This was achieved with 55 2-y-os running in 199 races and winning 40 of them. He had the same number of winners in his second but with more horses and a lower strike rate. His numbers dipped in 2020 and last year the numbers read 58 horses, 186 races run and 36 winners booted home. Over the last two seasons if you had backed every No Nay Never runner who were not making their racecourse debut you would have had 17.9% winners for a return of £109.70. The distance to back them over? Five furlongs 22.0% winners for £122.70. All classes came alike, good strike rate and profits in just about all of them, Class 2(B) is the only one that didn't. 22.0% winners on Good to Firm for a return of £111.40. His fillies did well when running against their own sex, 18.7% for £125. 

PROFITABLE

His first crop stepped on to a racecourse for the first time last year and they did their dad proud, not earth-shattering results but quite a nice start finishing 8th. in the overall table. 84 of them raced, taking part in 354? races winning 38 (some of them must have been quite busy?!). On a small sample size runners over 8-9 furlongs won 17.6 % of the time for a return of £207.40, I'm wary of that number.

SHAMARDAL

This feller has been around the black a great number of times and very successfully too. Producing very good and perhaps in some instances great horses. But how have his 2-y-os been doing in the last couple of years? Not great numbers with regard to winners But with a bit of digging and with small sample size: backing his 2-y-os firs time out 22.6% £155.10, over 8-9 furlongs 31.2% and £183.70, Class 4 (D) 21.7& and £135.90, Good to Soft 22.2% and £167.80, Good 31.2% and £148, Does better with the boys than the girls 28.1% and £142. I compiled these figures back in November and December and I have to say looking at them now I'm finding it difficult to accept them at face value. I'll have a look in the coming weeks to see if they are OK.

SHOWCASING

First crop appeared in 2014,  described in the Stallion Book as an excellent source of 2-y-o s. He's still producing winners regularly in the top 30 of 2-y-o sires. The figures for the two latest years have been: 2020 finished in 8th. position, 66 horses ran in 246 races winning 34; 2021 10th, position, 80 horses ran in 318 and won 36. In the last two years if you backed all his runners, except those making their debut, you would have had 14.1% winners for a return of £114.50. He had better numbers in Class 2 17.2% winners and a return of £164.70 and Class 3, 35.7% and £184.80 . Well suited by give in the ground; Soft 15.9% and £168.50, Good to Soft 17.3% £129.80. His boys do better than his girls, especially when running against other boys only, 27.8% and £156.90. 

STARSPANGLEDBANNER

From memory this stallion was thought to be underperforming in his studies , having trouble getting mares in foal. Whatever the problem may have been it seems to have been sorted. Last year appears to have been his best for numbers; he finished 30th. in the table, he had 58 running for him, they contested 215 races winning 29. In the last two years his youngsters did best in Class 3 25.0% winners with a return of £173.60, they appreciate cut in the ground; Heavy 18.2% winners, returns £125.80, Soft 23.3% and £256.50.

WOOTTON BASSETT

An old song (recently brought to mind by a TV ad) might be appropriate here, "Save The Best For Last. " (Vanessa Williams). I have to admit that as a racehorse Wootton Bassett never caught my attention, probably because his best performance came in France in the Grand Criterium on bottomless ground and trained by Richard Fahey, a trainer I have never been able to work out. In fact he was a very good and progressive 2-y-o arriving in France unbeaten in four races, including Group 2s at York and Doncaster. Unfortunately for whatever reason he wasn't able to produce anything like that form as a 3-y-o, just four races and unplaced in all. The fact that the four races he run before going to France were won on either Good or Good To Firm suggests he wasn't a mud-lover and you just wonder if he left his Classic career in that French mud.

His stud career is quite unusual as well. Standing at A French stud he made a quiet start with his first runners appearing in 2015 with just 16 horses and 5 wins but one of that first crop was Almanzor who developed into a very smart middle-distance 3-y-o winning the 10f. Champion Stakes at Ascot in 2016. By 2019 things were much busier, 51 runners taking part in 169 races and winning 24. In 2020 the stallion was bought by "The Lads" and settled into Coolmore.. the fee for his services was increased from 40,000 to 100.000 for 2021 and up again to 125,000 (euros) for 2022.

His numbers for 2020 were 43 horses running in 98 races and winning 23,. Last year they read 49 horses in 156 races and 33 wins.If you had backed all his runners in that two year period you had a strike rate of 27.7% and a return of £165.90, all his runners first time out 16.0% and £110.00, over 5 furlongs 33.3% and £118.80, 7furlongs 31.4% and £210.70, 8-9 furlongs 16.7% and £129.20. He did especially well in Class 1 27.8% and £257.60, and Class 4 30.8% and £226.90. They don't seem at all ground dependent; Good to Soft 33.3% and £110.40, Good 33.3 and £264.80, Good to Firm 46.2% and £256.60. Colts and geldings were much better than the fairer sex, 30.0% and £159.90 in races for both genders and even better 31.2 % and £302.30 when only the colts and geldings were taking part. Impressive returns and it will be interesting to see if those sort of figures can be maintained.

Well that's the whole 26 of them and I hope the numbers will give you food for thought. It would be even nicer if there were a little profit involved as well.